Monthly Archive for October, 2005

More on Vodafone

Published on 31st Oct 2005 in Indian Telecom. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , .

It seems that Vodafone is creating more ripples than it ought to.

I had reported earlier that Vodafone’s investment seems more like a speculation, rather than any real investment. As the details became clear, Warburg Pincus exited with the sale of it’s stake.

It’s hard to believe that Vodafone paid $1000 per subscriber. Partly because on the flawed assumptions that mobile telephony would always grow. Partly because, the numbers are a BIG suspect. Despite the crowing about the “lowest tariffs”, we are still to see genuine opening up of the telecom industry. Primarily Carrier Access Codes that needs to be implemented. That would give us the right to choose our service provider. Not only on the price factor- hopefully soon on the quality factor too.

Mobile phones are good- but they cannot entirely replace the landlines. This is because the spectrum is a scarce resource. No wonder, the telecom majors are falling over themselves to get 3G licences. Despite the steep prices and utter lack of content.

Read more on the Business Standard Story

The Rural Gamble

Published on 29th Oct 2005 in General Thoughts. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , .

Much has been talked about the rural telephony and the need for mobile services. Though there are caveats to the same.

First define a rural area. On an arbitrary basis, it is an area of less than 5000 population. The income levels are much less defined. Similary, its hard to believe the existing government definition of “Below Poverty Line” ( so called BPL ) families. Again, they are defined as those who are earning less than $1 per day. I would appreciate if anyone corrects me on this please. I couldn’t find any reference online.

It’s hard to believe the statistics. In that case, what is the measure of rural consumption? It is the foodgrains. Over the past 10+ years, as the neo liberalistic policies have taken shape, we have seen a sharp decline in the consumption of foodgrains. So much so, malnutrition has become an epidemic. On the wayside and not related to telecom. Do you know that Iron Deficiency Anaemia is one of the commonest clinical conditions seen in India? A clear reflection of lopsided dietary patterns.

In this scenario, the falling consumption of foodgrains means that rural folk are earning less.The policies that were supposed to help them ( infact every policy- damned policy is designed to help them ) haven’t worked. And so does the capitalistic model which states that income would trickle down to the downtrodden. Well, so has the leftist policies ( the bloody corpse worshippers ) that believes in redistribution of wealth, has worked in their bastions. Infact, unreported in the mainstream media, West Bengal has very poor health care indicators, much less than the national average.

So, assuming the poor people would spend their money on food, where is the test case for rural mobile telephony? Nope, it isnt there. Firstly because the mobile handsets need to affordable. Secondly, the high recurring costs. Despite the claims that tariffs are among the lowest in the world. Pooh pooh.

I believe that Broadband networks- through fixed line telephony would make perfect sense. First, in the field of education and get them in the mainstream. Secondly, most of the outsourcing and the data entry jobs can be moved in the interior of the country. Of course, this is exmplotation of the labour- still they would be much better off than depending on the traditional methods which hasn’t yeilded any results.

TRAI is subsiding the costs of setting up mobile networks, when instead it should force BSNL to open up it’s last mile and allow other private players to offer their telephony sevices. Of course, some babu sitting up isn’t happy to hear this.

Only the fixed line telephony would be able to shrink costs and offer a long term viable solution to digital divide. Mobile telephony would just eat up spectrum and nothing else. Of course, on the flip side, there is a perfect case for the likes of BSNL who have managed to get subscribers from these very areas. Would it mean that it would have to share the network? Or is it a reflection of underserved area with a huge pent up demand? Time would tell.

Vodafone’s entry

Published on 29th Oct 2005 in Indian Telecom. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

It was expected. I had mentioned it long time back that Airtel is looking to divest it’s stake in Telecom and look for greener pastures elsehwere. Notably in Agriculture. Yet, what does the entry of Vodafone means here?

For starters, they have only invested in 10% stake in Airtel. Meaning thereby that it would give Airtel some funds for expansion. The exact details for the arriving at the valuation aren’t known but then they wouldnt be known either.

Does it mean that Indian Telecom is “rocking”? No. Because, Vodafone’s strategy seems to be wait and watch. Interestingly, they haven’t applied as independent operator. That would mean buying a licence and setting up a shop here and slowly grow up scales. They just chose to invest- I believe with full knowledge that they have the option to sell of stake in the future whenever the valuation improves.

The news came in with announcement of Q2 results of Airtel. This was much less than the market expecatations and as of date, their share prices went down instead of improving.

Hence Vodafone’s investment needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

How does this help Airtel in the long run? I believe that extra infusion of funds would help in one way. Further, they might be able to have extra expertise in value added services like content. As I mentioned, the details are not yet known.

How does it benefit Indian Telecom? Well, this comes at the heels of the expected 74% FDI limit to be announced shortly. There had been a proposal but it wasn’t notified. We might see the entry of another player- the smaller players in GSM like Aircel or Spice might decide to sell out. Or the extra funds may give Airtel the financial muscle to buy out the smaller players. They have conciosuly tried to avoid raising money from the banks or financial lenders. Reliance may well be able to hive off it’s GSM network. Though I would be thankful to anyone for providing me the details from North East and so called category C circles.

Is the euphoria warranted? Of course not. Yet, telecom experts of all hues are going to crow about anytime soon.

The smaller ISP’s

Published on 29th Oct 2005 in Other Frustrated Customers and Other ISPs. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , .

The ISP licence is available for a token Re 1. That was started off to encourage many companies to provide internet connectivity. Yet, before the project could take off, the public companies – BSNL and then VSNL ( which was a part of the ugly complex) and MTNL felt threatened and nipped them in the bud.

In the bloodbath that followed, a few companies survived. Primarily among them was Sify- whom everyone loves to hate. Glide in Punjab and possibly Rolta. I am not aware of the other ISP’s at present. I think Tata Power was in the ISP business and they sold off to VSNL. Other minor players, minus the financial muscle were just swamped off.

Why? They all had to purchase the last mile link from BSNL or MTNL. In that case, it was overpriced because BSNL was intent on depriving the exisiting customers from enjoying better customer services or speeds. I believe much of the dial up speeds has to do with the server load at the ISP’s and the international gateway connectivity. BSNL was at fault with both- yet only by virtue of they being the monopoly could drive down the prices. At some point of time, people had to compromise on the quality for the prices because the prices for dial up connectivity in India is among the highest in world. That explains the recent thrust of “broadband”. People appreciate the fact that it is DSL. This frees the hssle of blocking the phone line or paying extra rent for another phone line for Internet surfing.

As for the smaller operators, they had survived initially on service plank. Though with passage of time and reasons I just mentioned above, the ISP business became unviable. Though it was for home users. With the explosion of the manufacturing sector and IT industry in late 90’s and early 2000’s, ISP’s entered in Virtual Private Networking or VPN for short. However, this move was blocked by BSNL because it was their network that was being redeployed for VPN. The matter was referred to TDSAT- I am not aware as to what came out of the court case. It wasn’t reported in the media at all.

There was another class of operators- one’s who operated VSAT’s or Very Small Aperture Terminals. Though till recently, prior to the introduction of the “broadband policy”, there was a limit to the speeds! Imagine. Then the Government in all it’s wisdom restricted the same to Indian satellites. Knowledgable people tell me that Indie satellites are overbooked and there is no space for the transmission of data signals. It’s indeed a sad stroy because VSAT’s can be leveraged easily for high data rates and geographical spread to remote locations. All this to protect BSNL.

At present I believe Hughes Direcway is the only established player in the VSAT’s market. They are focussing entirely on the education segment and virtual classrooms. Interestingly, Skumars, better known for their fabrics, wanted to replicate the Hughes network. Though, the idea never took off the ground. I am not aware of any other details.

So well, its been an interesting roller coaster ride and myopic Government policies that have denied the benefits to ordinary Indians.

Denial of Information

Published on 29th Oct 2005 in General Thoughts. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , .

As the momentous occasion of transcribing Human genome has become history, the spin offs have been amazing. For after years, the discreet molecular mechanisms that underlie much of the process of Cancers, is slowly being unravelled. The worst part is that I am feeling left out of this exciting discovery.

It usually takes in heavy downloads to understand whatever is being talked about. Broadband gave me a rare oppurtunity to log on to the infospace and understand. Hopefully apply the same. Yet the frigging idiots sitting up decide to control the access to information. They feel that I would use it for file sharing or leech on their networks.

Broadband isnt really great and as far as connectivity is concerned, it sucks. Yet, the whole point is that I am happy that it is there in the first case. I shudder to think of my peers and those unfortunate people who don’t have an access to computer itself. Or the ways and means to access the knowledge resources is woefully inadequate.

The whole point here is that it’s extremely frustrating to be restricted. Heavy data wouldn’t load up on a dial up. It isnt me as a health professional who is constrained. I have read accounts of people who wish to work from home. Or log on to the exploding oppurtunity of E commerce. Or perhaps participate in online learning courses. All for knowledge’s sake. Yet, the mandarins are gloating about the way they have us all at their mercy.

If anyone from the media or the BSNL is reading this- kindly note that it isnt the IPTV or the gaming services we need at present. Just give us decent connectivity. As the largest service provider and a public undertaking, it is your responsibilty and our right to demand equitable services.

True, I can now understand why brain drain occurs. And we are left with a HUGE swathe of unworthy idiots…ones who claim that we need Pentium 4’s to run broadband!

Right to Information

Published on 28th Oct 2005 in General Thoughts. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , .

The Right to Information is a momentous bill. However, I have a reason to be cynical about the same.

Traditionally the governments have chosen to throttle and gag the media. The fourth Estate has huge responsibilites but the present mess in the print and the television needs to be done away with. I would say, that there are islands of excellence in sea of mediocrity. A comment on the media isn’t warranted here though. The point is that Blogs give a new meaning to dissemination of ideas and information. This is the new form that Governments would definitely try and suppress. By pricing it either very high ( internet access ) or blocking the respective IP’s. While there are ways and means to circumvent the blocks ( by using Anonymiser software or new age Tor networks ) the initiatives are still far and few.

Coming back to the right to information. This allows any Indian to question the money’s worth. The level of investment, the leakages et al. While the appointment of Chief Information Officer has political overtones ( something that I wouldn’t comment on here ) it is hard to imagine the the beareaucracy would allow itself to be made accountable.

As regards to BSNL, I would want to have the following answers:

1) Why was Huawei awarded the tender for Broadband lines despite the fact that it has been under scanner of the intelligence agencies?

2) Why is BSNL persisting with the download limits and what is the exact nature of agreement with the upstream providers? How much does it actually cost BSNL per MB of data transfer?

3)Why has the unbundling of local loop been tanked? The right to information bill allows me to know the minutes of the meeting. I am sure that people up there would want to keep their chairs cosy.

4) Why does Department of Telecom the self appointed “regulator” and why doesn’t TRAI’s recommendations see the light of the day?

5) How much was paid for the licences and why havent the bank gurantees of the private players been encahsed for not venturing in the rural areas, despite the fact that it was one of their licencing conditions?

There are many questions and there has been a flip flop on the policies just to protect the short term interests of BSNL- in affect the consumers.

The only problem is that the mass of people choose to keep quiet. The purpose of the write ups here is that I am demanding information as a concerned citizen. My intent isnt to malaign any soul- howsoever evolved he/ she may be. As public servants, they ought to stand scrutiny for their actions because it is we who elected them in the first case to govern us. Arguably, the present set up isn’t “elected” in the true sense of the term as it doen’t enjoy the majority and vote of the electorate. Just oppurtune circumstances and the corpse worshippers who managed to get in power.

Just ask for your rights. Write to media, generate awareness and spread the word. Debate on the way our country needs to be governed and not accept the fate per se.

Chinese Onslaught

Published on 28th Oct 2005 in General Thoughts and Indian Telecom. 0 Comments Tags: , , , .

Over the past few years, Chinese manufacturing base has grown by leaps and bounds.While the media tends to highlight the inflow of FDI and the concurrent economic benefits, it has so far failed to report the actual situation on the ground.

Chinese Government has traditionally forced banks to loan upstarts to get in manufacturing. Given the scope for corruption and high saving rates of the Chinese, this has resulted in huge non performing assests in the economy. So much so, it is alleged that Chinese banking system is on the verge of a massive collapse-though ably funded by the government by means of doles. Somehow it is standing on a support structure. While reforms are underway- there is much to be desired there.

The growth of the telecom is expected- I believe that they have much clearer policies about Telecom. However, the growth in telecom and consequently Internet is thwarted by huge amount of censorship- something that India is relatively immune from. Marxists would do anything to promote the cult of Mao and this means his ideas of censorship too. People have a notional concept of democracy and any attempt to circumvent the existing laws is severly dealt with.

In this background, Chinese company Huawei has been able to bag orders from BSNL. Everytime I switch on the crappy plasticky modem, I realise the gravity of the situation. Most often BSNL’s services just conk off. Is it to do with the kind of the telecom equipment we have in place? I know not of the technical aspect, though I strongly believe it is such.

There was an interesting article in Business World which decided to explore the origins of Huawei. One thing was clear. The promoters are close to the ruling elite in China- which means that most of their working capital has been underwritten by the Chinese financial institutions. At the same time, Huawei hasn’t been able to make it’s mark up in the telecom equipment. I believe that they are under the surveillance of the intelligence agencies; I had reported this earlier.

Why am I inimical to Chinese and this post. Two main reasons. First and foremost. The existing idea to award the tender to the one with the lowest cost needs to be reviewed. If and when there is better equipment, why hasn’t this been given order for? Their claims that Huawei’s equipment was upto Dot’s standards doesnt hold water at all. And then, a huge order to the Chinese manufacturers has killed the initiative to innovate in our own country.

Secondly and more pertinently, my anitpathy to the marxists and the way they undermine the nationalism. It is true that they are corpse worshippers ( Lenin hasn’t been buried yet). What’s worse is that their ideologies are fossilised and hold no relevance to present circumstances. No wonder they remain confined to narrow constituencies- there too they have made a mess of the present system.