Mobiles:
The quest for consumer has been brought in focus. As the metros become saturated, the focus is slowly shifting to rural areas. Arguably, the mobile phones increase the GDP of the nation. However, a pertinent point needs to be made.
The rural consumption can effectively measured by the consumption of food grains. I remember, there was a debate to the same effect in Business Standard. The food grains consumption has been decreasing over a period of time; meaning thereby that there is less of disposable cash. Further, health care costs account for the rural indebtedness.
I wouldn’t like to paint a rosy picture of “millions” of subscribers here. For arguments sake, in a nation of billion if 100 million ultimately have mobile phones, it means that 1 in every 10 Indian is connected. This is highly idealised statistic because, I have been arguing on this blog that companies don’t follow a universally accepted method of counting the subscribers. Further, there is no independent verification of the same. It means that numbers are highly suspect. Probably, the numbers are hyped up to either increase the valuation or hoard up spectrum. (Spectrum allocation increases as the subscriber base increases).
In this age of increasing health care costs, chronic disease burden, malnutrition et al take their toll. I really wonder whether the rural folk would have enough cash to dispense the money to go mobile. There is a strong possibility that current target is the low spending customer in the fringes of metros; consequently a high demand for second hand mobiles in these areas. Further, the marketing thrust is more active in “category B and C” towns which have remained out of the marketing radar. Hence, recent spate to introduce bundled low cost “chinese” phones. Uugh!
Given the foregoing account, it is clear that mobile applications and add ons are severly limited to a miniscule percentage of “high end mobiles”. MMS, Email Surfing, Blackberry’s or Mobile Portals etc. That leaves out a vast majority of people who use mobiles mainly for voice applications. Or at times, log on to the SMS mania on the various TV channels. As a result, the Average Revenue Per User or ARPU drags down despite the fact that “high end” applications are pricey and afford a revenue stream in the absence of an alternative to the end user. That’s why the one uppance for 3G spectrum.
How would be the mobile applications like “mobile search” and “GPRS” or “3G” services be more relevant? Government of India’s plans to auction off 3G spectrum goes contrary to the assertions made here. For all, we’d be just subsiding the companies’s efforts to acquire spectrum. Which again is assinine to implement given the market realities are contrary to the telecom companies plans. Further, the mobile content development is still in it’s infancy; I can hardly think of 2/3 companies at present. Indeed, there is huge market for the same; but the current estimates are being hyped up. An average joe would settle in for a basic handset without the frills. This means that companies would have to spend huge amount of money in advertisements to create a demand; jacking up the prices unneccesarily.
Basically, there is no originality in the telecom market. Each one has “me-too” plans which means that no telecom operator can claim exclusivity.
Well, we don’t have much choice either isn’t it?
Tags: 3G, Advertisement, Business Standard, Chinese, GPRS, GUI, India, Mobile, mobile phones, Mobiles, Opera, SMS, Spectrum, Telecommunications India