Monthly Archive for April, 2006

Reliance:Betting on convergence

Reliance has entered in the film distribution business. This was in the news recently; the company was excited about a steady source of revenue for them.

Film distribution has become a professional affair. With increased digitisation of the cinemas, the next generation broadband would drastically change and shift the contours of the way we consume entertainment.

However, the broader subtext of the news ought to be seen in the light of what Anil Ambani proposes to do. He’s a smart chap and knows how to hedge his bets. His father invested in a refinery for which there was no stake holder earlier on. He had the far sightedness to observe that much more margins can be made from that crude which is usually discarded. Breaking all conventions, he ventured and spun off a thriving polyester business. Now, they are the unchallanged badshahs of polyester. Their scale (and contacts) have ensured that no one can scale up/ set up a greenfield unit. They can create any degree of artificial shortage and dictate the prices.

On a similar plan is Anil Ambani’s foray in the media business.On an earlier write up I was wrong to assume that Anil Ambani had spread himself too thin. In a later post, I had quoted from a Business Standard article which detailed Reliance’s multi crore ambitions for being the next media moghul.

This comes on the heels of the latest catch phrase“Convergence”. If Reliance’s broadband doesn’t get delayed, we might see some acquisitions and we might as well see copper being wired to our homes. My earlier diatribe about Reliance partnering with cable operators was prompted by a report in Indian Television.com which later proved to be media speculation.

(These are linked to my older posts; just giving Google enough reason to sniff around for the old links).

Hence, Anil Ambani would be in a position to dictate the prices, cross advertise in his media holdings and generate content for the Broadband consuming masses. I believe that this may be true. Let the future reveal it.

BSNL Broadband: Freedom at last

As usual, this is breaking news on Broadband blog.

After much wrangling, phone calls and abuses, BSNL has finally launched it’s unlimited access. The official notification is yet to come online- but it took enough grace on the behalf of Deputy Director General, Broadband, to give me a call and ask me to submit the application for the plan change.

For those who are following this blog for regular updates- I’d suggest that you submit your application before 1st May. Surprisingly, the Customer “Care” Centre is open on Sundays and before the billing plans change over, you’d be in a position to have the unlimited connection by 1st (hopefully). (The planned tariff is Rs 900 per month- decent I believe).

The “customer care” babu couldn’t think beyond the manual entry and was shunting me from one desk to another. I have seen the red tapism and excessive fascination for rules and regulations from very close quarters. This is the naked fangs of Government of India in real life. I had to complain to the General Manager of my area to accept my application! Something that’s the job of a low level clerk.

Arguably, the increased “competition” has made the things slightly better. BSNL has been forced to improve it’s service delivery; however, it remains a case of misguided enthusiasm. The average age of the customer care “executive” is 40+ which makes any enthusiasm on their behalf a BIG suspect. When you have pre menopausal women at the counters, irritatable moods are the norm. The men folk are pot bellied and sloppy; with reflexes so slow, that would shame a limping tortoise.

It would take some real genuine competition to shake up the things. Specially when the top heads are made responsible for the shrinking customer base; their balls would turn blue at the thought of being accountable and adverse entries in Annual Confidential Reports. Shape up or ship out ought to be the new mantra.

There are indeed a lot of blemishes; the customer care toll free remains a model of apathy (what associated with BSNL isn’t) and despite the intentions to keep it as a central nodal agency for the complaints, it keeps you on a perpetual hold. A sorry instance of tax payers money going down the shit hole.

Still, as the Broadband forums say, BSNL is government powered Broadband. We are happy to have something of substance, than be at the bottom of pyramid, like in Africa. Where argubaly, the only instance of being alive is that well, you are alive.

It would take a huge post to list out the chronology of events/ chain emails/ mass mailings to the “honchos” of BSNL. I’d desist and instead focus on the other events as they are happening.

Before I end, if anyone from the media is reading this, I give you guys a middle finger up your puckered holes. I requested one and all to have this highlighted and all my mails were ignored. Now that I don’t give a big F to your existence and this blog shall engage the voice of ordinary people to affect a policy change. Granted you have reach, but all you would highlight is the “wardrobe malfunctions” or the jholawalla idiots from JNU and their pet peeves. Boo.

I’d like to end on a happy note here. Freedom from rationing access; and perhaps Broadband would deliver what it was supposed to do. A decent access finally. And perhaps for the FIRST time EVER in my LIFE. Unlimited Internet. Even if it crawls at 256k (best case scenario), I am happy.

Telecom Humour

Ever since one of the readers commented that it was good to get some “telecom humour” for a change, here comes a brilliant forum entry from an adman; who is a moderator (and Data One Billing Analyst) there.

Self confessed free lancer and an ex adman, I have been pestering him to contribute some of his insights in advertsing trends in telecom industry.

Enjoy!

Chinese invasion

This post is a continuation on the other previous ones. China deserves merit, in my opinion, because I don’t trust them. To have them in our borders is an invitation for disaster.

Claude Arpi on Rediff points to the dangerous Chinese symptoms who seem to plan in advance and then inflict damage to the adversary. The modern warfare has changed drastically, but the basic principles remain the same as enunciated by Sun Tzu in his seminal work on The Art of War.

Why then Chinese Art of War and Telecom?

The answer lies in Claude Arpi’s work. Mind you. It’s scary and the bureaucrats used to plush life ought to understand the gravity of the same. Claude writes:

Terrorism is of course mentioned the most often, but it is just one of the many ways of unconventional warfare identified by Unrestricted Warfare. To cite a few others:

  • Financial war is a form of non-military warfare which is just as terribly destructive as a bloody war, but in which no blood is actually shed;
  • Technological warfare (creating monopolies by setting standards independently);
  • Resources warfare (grabbing riches by plundering stores of resources);
  • International law warfare (seizing the earliest opportunity to set up regulations).
  • It is apparent that Chinese are hell bent on destroying whatever little enterpise we might have in telecom equipment. By hoisting their standards on us, they are causing a grave damage to India in the long run.

    What is the Unrestricted Warfare that I just mentioned? You’d have to download the pdf file (328kb) and read it for yourself. It makes for a fascinating read.

    Broadband in India: WimaX ready?

    The last mile access is the holy grail; this is one of the most contentious issues across the world as to how to bridge the gap.

    There are many cities in US which haven’t yet been served with Broadband. Predictably, this has given rise to the digital haves and have nots and it isn’t surprising to see ISP’s worse than our very own BSNL.

    However, the thrust of the post isn’t ISP bashing. It’s about newer technologies that have made their presence felt. The first among those has been WiFi or Wireless Fidelty. There has been a confusing string of names and I wouldn’t go in the technical details. I’d rather focus on the policy aspects of implementation.

    WiFi has been recently de licenced by the “improved” version of the Telecom Policy. Predictably, there were a lot of “anal-ysts” who were crowing hoarse about the implications. That it would usher us in the information age all at once. It hasn’t happened over the past 1+ year and I see/ read no signs of the same.

    WiFi is limited in extent to what we call as a “hotspot”. Anyone can set up a wireless router to broadband connection and serve it up. This trend hasn’t really caught up in India. Infrastructure/ pricing hassles apart, the biggest drawback of WiFi is the limited range it can offer. Plus, the equipment et al ought to be in “Line of Sight”. Not to mention the slow access speeds.

    To overcome these hassles, the younger sibling of WiFi, WiMaX was announced. Theoretically speaking, it can serve speeds UPTO 70Mbps and doesn’t need the “line of sight” for it’s implementation.

    However, there are three major issues with this.

  • Intel is primarily the moving force behind WiMax. This means that it would want to milk back it’s patented technology. It would further drive up the costs associated with implementation. I am not comfortable with a second grade company dictating the prices/ technology. Intel wants the WiMax to come mainstream via it’s chips in computers and laptops. It’s ViV (pronounced “five”) chip for home entertainment has come as cropper and this by all means would definitely fail to take off as expected.
  • The spectrum. Where the F*** we have it? Wi Max can be implemented on the same cell towers as for mobiles. The telcos are squabbling for 3G licences. Would they be willing to invest in serious money for WiMaX which would compete with 3G, if and when it is announced?
  • WiMax isn’t tested technology. The predicted date for it’s test launch is somewhere in 2007. Theoratically, it does sound good. However, once you have thousands of customers being served, it would slow down to a crawl. Depending on the conditions, at best, it can deliver 500k- 1Mbps. This is again highly idealised scenario. It would make sense only if it can deliver it’s promise beyond what the landlines currently offer.
  • With the present immersive content available online, I doubt whether WiMaX can really have any impact on access.

    You could as well as toss coins about the utility of the same. At best, it can be used in war time scenarios- with WiMaX transmitters embedded deep in bunkers; maintain the crucial data links among the commanders. Or setting up WiMaX systems for the armed forces in dreary areas. Who would mind streaming porn?

    The large scale implementation of WiFi in India is being planned for Pune, near Mumbai. There hasn’t been any disclosure of the details as yet, but if it does happen, it would be the first city in India to have WiFi on such a scale. The biggest hitch is that the customer base is ill defined. The Pune Municipal Corporation has estimated that there are approximately 1 lakh laptop owners. They have assumed that ALL of them would subscribe to WiFi. Which in my opinion is sheer stupidity. The pricing details et al would have to be attractive enough to make it happen. Further, they would have to bank on the increased customer base using computers.

    We are still far away from REAL BROADBAND. Everything boils down to spectrum availability and final price. India isn’t WiMax ready; till the time Wireless can come up with something better, I believe that it would be more prudent to focus on increasing the landline base.

    Institutionalised stupidity

    I could have used harsher words.

    Business Standard has the lead story which says that Chinese firms would not be screened for possible threat to the nation.

    This will clear the air over the proposal of Huawei Telecommunications, which had sought permission to set up a manufacturing unit in India about two years ago. Its application is still hanging fire.

    I have already mentioned about the same earlier on the blog and does not merit any repetition. It’s not about being paranoid, just that we ought to be much more careful about the kind of investments we are attracting.

    This definitely has more political and economic ramifications than you can imagine. Increasing foreign direct investment undermines the local currency. Further, it plays havoc with Capital Controls. Much of the “easy money” that is flowing in the stock markets (admittedly with oppurtune strong quaterly results) has fuelled the speculation in stock markets and has nothing to do with the “fundamentals”.

    This decision marks the reversal of long held BJP policy of not allowing more than mandated FDI in chosen sectors and ensuring that majority stake remains with the Indians. Unfortunately, BJP as a unit lies in tatters, which is unable to exert itself in any direction.

    Congress would definitely lead the nation to ruin. If job quotas aren’t sufficient, India is being sold piecemeal under WTO pressures. It would be out of scope here though, to comment on the process.

    It would do us much good, if we have capital controls (persist with them instead of abolishing them as planned by 2009), restricted FDI in crucial sectors, state investment in infrastructure and selling off the loss making Public Sector Units. In other words, fiscal prudence and not the populism that seems to be the short cut to the vote bank. And keeping a strict vigil on the Chinese entry of goods.

    Unless people demand and assert their rights, there won’t be any action on the ground. The rights have to be tempered with knowledge, as to how the entry of foreign firms would lead to havoc with our societal culture and ethos. In telecommunications, our security.

    Broadband Blog: Some modification

    This one is a BIG thanks to Sushubh. I think, he doesn’t mind when I pester him!

    We have added a email delivery notification system in the blog. For those who haven’t subscribed to RSS feeds, this one is a perfect bet. RSS feeds haven’t really caught on with the fancy as yet.

    None of your mail ids gets registered here. Though, if you wish to get a response, please do comment in with your authentic email ids. I have had some regular discussions with some of my readers via email on topics of mutual interest, other than telecom, and it’s “intellectually” very satisfying to learn. Further, your comments are welcome- it only expands the topic for discussion; the same way which we had recently on Chinese growth.

    Cheers.