Monthly Archive for January, 2008

New players and ideas

Published on 29th Jan 2008 in Indian Telecom. 0 Comments Tags: Access Deficit Charge, Advertisement, Advertising, android, BSNL, COAI, Department of Telecom, handsets, I hate MBA's, India, Internet, Reliance, SMS, Spectrum, TRAI, Value Added Services, walled garden, Wireless.

Department of Telecom (may your tribe decrease!) has recently awarded the spectrum to new players. They did that with aplomb and a lot of hoopla. Mishra ji, of TRAI fame, was needlessly fingered, perhaps by COAI (after being induced by post retirement lollies) that the whole process of awarding spectrum was unfair. So far, there has been no clearity about the methodology to award the spectrum to new players. However, entry of new players is surely going to worry the existing players.

In any case, it would make perfect business sense to cartelise because any fall in the prices would affect all the players together. The new players lack the required experience in rolling out services barring a few established players. Who would pay for the cost of advertisements, getting clearances from local authorites, setting up towers, ordering telecom equipment and the works. I believe that it would be introduction with bundled handsets and in order to survive in the metros, the new companies would play their “better network” card. The value added services are a passe’. Anyone with enough balls and brains would pimp for wireless internet and invest wisely in walled portals; imagine the convenience to shop from your handset and pay via SMS. It would require a generational shift in the way we live and work; nevertheless demand can be created and sustained.

Another wave of cheaper handsets would hit Indian shores. The much hyped Google’s initiative called as Android would pave way for better internet experience and with falling prices of smart phones, it would be an excellent platform for new handsets and better net applications.

I was surprised to see Reliance advertising for mobile blog applications. This is surely a brave thing to do; though their portal sucks. They can’t even get their web pages coded properly to conform to the standards. However, with steep prices per SMS, I wonder how many suckers would like to air their thoughts. I am sure that it would loose it’s steam soon. Or unless, Mr Money bags really wants to burn up huge pile of cash anyway advertising.

One burning question. Would the entry of new players really lower the prices? TRAI has mandated the phasing out the Access Deficit Charge payable to BSNL. In effect, that would make the calls cheaper if the existing players decide to pass on the benefits to the subscribers. I have my doubts about that because BSNL would go down fighting as the access deficit charge reflects in it’s annual profits; some MBAs (see I told you, I dont like them) conceal it as “earnings”. The new players would want to recoup their expenses and play the volume game. I doubt, really really doubt that the claimed 25paise for the local call would ever materialise. It’s like pulling out the rabbits from the hat and then claiming it’s magic.

Lets wait and watch.

Airtel Broadband: Suckers

Published on 29th Jan 2008 in Airtel Broadband, Broadband in India, India Broadband News and Indian Telecom. 1 Comment Tags: Airtel, Airtel Broadband, Broadband, Broadband pricing, Broadband SUCKS, IPTV, Landline, Reliance, TRAI.

Airtel recently reduced the price for 512kbps; I got a call from an excited “executive” who “informed” about the price reduction. In real terms, this doesn’t amount to much since the taxes would anyway make it more expensive than it really is. They could have reduced the prices for 256kbps instead.

Trust the morons to loose an initiative. I wonder as to how do they find enough money to feed an army of MBA’s who sit back and deliberate about doing nothing. (P.S. I don’t like the MBA’s a wee bit). In the past 6 months, ever since I have had Airtel Broadband, there has been a downtime just once. However, others would testify the slackening quality of access elsewhere; Airtel needs to tone up in other parts of NCR.

All said and done, Airtel seriously needs to “take the initiative” and upset other player’s calculation. We would, forever, suffer speeds of “upto” 256k without any appreciable benefit. TRAI is sleeping over the customer complaints and instead of taking any concrete action, prefers to sniff out the babus’ puckered holes. Not a charming thought at any cost, indeed.

If anyone from Airtel is smart enough to read and understand whatever I have written here, take some efforts to have simplified plans and get your IPTV rolling out. It’s high time to wrest the initiative because if Reliance comes calling (as and when they realise that there is a huge stake out in landline business), you guys would be quaking and shitting in your pants. Reliance has already held Airtel’s testicles and turned them blue strangulating them. It would their landline business next. And I dont get my predictions wrong at all.

Spectrum: Who wins the game?

Published on 19th Jan 2008 in Indian Telecom. 0 Comments Tags: Anil Ambani, CDMA, GSM, Internet, Reliance, Spectrum, Wireless.

Shobhana Subramanian of Business Standard has concrete numbers about Reliance winning the game of spectrum wars. Worth reading. Except for the fact that I had raised the same issues in my earlier posts and now you know why I was dead right about Ambani making it really big.

Apart from maximising the revenues, GSM would help them to acquire more customers. I am sure that they would want to leverage the power of GSM and CDMA networks and introduce consolidated billing. For example, they could offer wireless internet on CDMA and voice calls on GSM; some kind of a switching mechanism could be developed.

Unless Anil Ambani wants to call it quits and screw up. Who knows?

Indian Telecom: New Players

Published on 14th Jan 2008 in General Thoughts, Indian Telecom, Mobiles, TRAI and Telecom News. 3 Comments Tags: 3G, Airtel, EDGE, GPRS, GSM, handsets, India, Indian Telecom, Reliance, Spectrum, TRAI, Videocon, Vodafone, Wifi, Wireless.

Raja has done it again. Reliance has managed to trip over it’s nearest competitors, Bharti and Vodafone and ordered 80-100 million lines. They can easily manage to swing lower equipment costs and hence lower prices to start off with. They have the spectrum, the money, the towers (in form of their infrastructure subsidiary) and enough experience to upset the equations with the existing players.

If Sunil Bharti Mittal is not shitting in his pants yet, he is the biggest moron in the industry. Reliance would be smart enough to upstage the existing players by slashing the costs ruthlessly. I am sure they would sweeten the deals with subsidised handsets or may even give them free initially. Imagine the multiplier effect it would have! They would make their money with locked in handsets and if I can see the situation right, they would go in for bottom of the pyramid where the real voumes lie. Unlike Airtel which has not been able to differentiate it’s offerings or establish it’s brand identity or the typical South Delhi crowd that ohhs aahh’s about the Vodafone screwed up pug. You get the drift.

Raja changed the rules of the game. Videocon (and notice the word “con”) too joined in the fray. Dhoot Sahib is the newest entrant to the millionaire club though would appeal to a typical pan chewing marwari unlike Bharti Mittal who gets himself invited to fancy conclaves. Dhoot too has the foresight to hit below the belt; even though he is an also ran in the electronics market, he has enough foresight to cash out his investment and make a neat pile. Interestingly, a company called as Swan Telecom has been allocated spectrum. I have heard (from my sources) that it is a front end for Reliance only.

In the game of shakers and movers, Airtel can look forward to monetise it’s investment in fixed line telephony. Even though there is a lot of brouhaha about the 3G licences on stake, it would not happen overnight. India is a volumes market and GPRS/EDGE is seriously a load of bull crap multiplied several times over. 3G handsets wouldn’t be affordable atleast for the next 5 years and crowing about Mbps wireless speeds makes no sense. Atleast to me. Unless we speak of Wifi networks in public places. Of course, being powered by fixed lines….

Raja has done a great deal of disservice to the nation by not auctioning off the spectrum. It’s difficult to quantify the exact money that has played in here. We need to know as to why cross over licence was given to the select few. Further, GSM companies have had to eat crow for their insistence on subscriber linked spectrum allocation and for too long they have been getting away with it. When TRAI declared that the subscriber’s number should be 2-3 times the existing number (and all kinds of Government agencies came into limelight to ascertain the spectrum issue), the companies had to sit back and huddle in silence.

The next move is being planned by smart ass lawyers who are going to make a killing in the next few weeks. The legal eagles would surely feast on this unholy carcass.

OPLC: Intel says bye bye

Published on 05th Jan 2008 in Digital Divide and General Thoughts. 0 Comments Tags: Broadband, Intel., laptop, Mesh Network, OPLC.

This is a project doomed for disaster primarily because it was an atlanticist’s version of creating another sop to “spoon feed” the hungry nations by way of “educating” them with brand new laptops. It is an interesting cocept but is sorely out of tune with the present realities. If you don’t get what I am speaking off, I am referring to the $100 laptop.

BBC says that Intel has bid goodbye to the project and instead wants to focus on it’s version of a run down “cheap” laptop. All “noble intentions” indeed. I am glad that the frigging babus did not invest crores of public money to support the hair brained idea. Nevertheless, I report here because there was lot of hue and cry about the “mesh networking” and the works.

Mobiles: Value added services

Published on 05th Jan 2008 in Indian Telecom and Mobiles. 0 Comments Tags: Mobiles, Value Added Services, Vodafone.

Shyam Somanadh has an interesting take on the value added services being offered by the various companies. Here is his write up. I liked the last para and merits an addition here:

Going forward, a smaller percentage of that 20% will probably subscribe to multiples of these services, kicking up the revenue per user even higher. And all of this is happening at near-zero or minimal cost to Vodafone. So, next time you wonder why Vodafone is going bonkers pummeling you with all the nifty ads that should be costing them a pretty penny, remember that some sucker somewhere is actually signing up for that service and giving plenty of reasons for Mr Sarin to smile about.

There are infact a lot of suckers which abound and multiply forth like mushrooms springing up at first hint of a rain.

Indian Telecom: Winds of change

Published on 03rd Jan 2008 in Indian Telecom. 0 Comments Tags: COAI, India, Indian Telecom, Reliance, Spectrum, TRAI.

Delhi High Court has said no to stay the spectrum allocation. It’s a resounding defeat for the COAI (the motley group of morons) and decided to press ahead with Reliance’s claims of having the right for dual licence. Further details on rediff story here. I am quite sure that an out of court settlement would be reached anytime soon. It would not be profitable for either party to indulge in costly legal battles and manage the nosy media either way.

In another significant draft notification from TRAI they have allowed for up to 74% if FDI in mobile TV. The details are sketchy but then let’s not bother. These fossilised morons are up to no good anyway. Still, the fact remains that mobile TV would be a reality and I am sure that a lot among you would be keenly watching midnight hour on fashion tv.