This is not the year end prediction but sadly all the action is taking place in the mobile arena. We are not going to see anything major happening in wireline business because it’s not “cool”.

First, the contentious number portability system is going to be launched initially in the four metros. I can bet that this would come into play only after Reliance launches it’s GSM service. For very obvious reasons because it would be betting big on the churn specially from the lower end of the market. It has already placed orders for “millions of handsets” and is looking forward to flood Indian market with “choice”. Expect some rude shocks for the incumbents.

The exact mechanism isn’t clear but there is going to be a big mess initially. I am sure that the operators would want to put across punitive “termination charges”, get host of clearances etc etc before you can heave a sigh of relief from it’s evil clutches. Yet, there is no differentiator between the Shylocks and the Satans in the market because at end of the day, they are all part of the same shit hole. Expect some high voltage drama here.

Second, the 3G licenses would be issued. There is no final word as to how this is going to be achieved; we are waiting for the Minister to feed fat on more money. By the way, Pioneer has a damning expose on their wrong doings over the past one year. (Link Source) Unless,Mr Minister is fed fat in his Swiss Bank account (Indian banking system sucks) we are not going to see anything move in this direction.

Mobile value added services is not going to add anything extra unless operators offer free porn. Imagine, free streaming porn without any restriction and daily MMS scandals! Since, Indians are loath to accept anything that comes out in the open, they could start streaming this for select few, obviously for a higher remuneration. I wonder why no one has thought about it. Callback ringtones are a passe’. So, not much of an action there too.

Mobile Virtual Network Operators would perhaps be legalised under immense pressure from the business house of Tatas. They are very keen to expand their “brand”; I have not seen any major advertising campaign from Virgin Mobile in recent times. They are spiked and spooked and relegated to some corner uncared for. How would that really matter? Does having more operators actually make sense? I believe that one size fits all strategy is not feasible. There are scores of people who would be happy to make unlimited outgoing calls for a fixed sum. Some people like to call telemarketing companies for pranks. Some people like to call fixed “hotline numbers” which offer “anonymity” without realising that the calls are routed within India alone. Some people like SMS alone. I feel that there would be companies to cater to such sections of deviants alone unless someone wants to prove me wrong.

So basically, we are left with no real action. 3G and number portability would be launched when Reliance announces it’s intention to start it’s GSM services. 3G licenses would be auctioned when Mantri ji has a green signal from his swiss banker. MVNO is an old tune from equally old flute; after virgin’s debacle no one wants to burn their backsides.

Where does the landline fit it? What of the frigging e governance issues? What of the “e learning”? Sheesh. Such lofty ideals would be done to waste? Who has the time to bother about such issues?

Although, I do see some reduction in the price when the price of international bandwidth crashes; the demand from the cyber coolies reduces as a result of economic downturn and telecom operators would be forced to deploy their “excessive bandwidth” for residential purposes. We might see the death of dial up; unless BSNL wants to keep it on a life support system. Since, they are only ones on the national scene offering it for free! Morons.

Happy 2009!

Tags: 3G, Advertising, BSNL, DTH, GSM, handsets, Incumbents, India, Indians, Landline, Mobile, Opera, Reliance, SMS, Tata, Tatas, Telecommunications India, Value Added Services, Virgin, virgin mobile

Jadoo means magic in Hindi. For all practical purposes, MTNL has pulled out the proverbial rabbit out of the hat when they launched these services recently.

The “pundits” claim that this would give MTNL a first mover advantage over the existing players. 3G auctions have been in a mess; with regulations changed over at whims and fancies of the chosen few. TRAI doesnt have any locus standi over the existing state of affairs which makes for a very disappointing scenario. Nevertheless, the age of the “fast mobile speeds” are in the offing and full fledged services would roll out from next year onwards.

If the MTNL would have applied their minds to this golden goose, they could have easily sold branded 3G handsets. They are expecting a certain percentage of people to upgrade their existing connections or use their handsets as modems to connect to the laptops. A USB dongle is expected to cost around 3.5K with no word yet on the quantum of the downloads allowed. If the boffins are going to restrict the limits to say 500 MB or 1 GB or something like that, it makes no sense and it is a self defeatist service.

I do expect a significant percentage of people to shift to the mobile Internet; partly because of the high cost of access on landline and partly because most of them do not like to stay stuck on one place for net access. The cost of the handsets is falling over; Nokia and their ilk are falling all over the place to bring better technology in your hands. This would be a big differentiator for MTNL to shore up their revenues via value added services since ring tones and call back services have been done to death. The mobile operators have to think beyond their standard fare to increase their share; improve billing and introduce mechanisms for quicker complaint resolution.

Rajesh Jain has interesting take on the “red and blue” mobile market in context to 3G services and the VAS.

I am watching MTNL’s roll out with interest. For all practical purposes, 3G remains the ONLY high point in 2008 in which otherwise has been a flat and dull year for broadband penetration.

Tags: 3G, Broadband, EDGE, handsets, Internet, Landline, laptop, Mobile, MTNL, Opera, SMS, Telecommunications India, TRAI, Value Added Services

I have been travelling over the weekend back to my native place which was untouched by the glitz and glamour of the metros. This Diwali seems to be muted; partially because of the economic recession and partly because of the widespread inflation.

I still cannot understand the “mobile story” and “fastest growth” crap. More and more people are migrating towards parallel connections instead of the trickle down effect as expected. Agreed that “lifetime incoming offers” have appealed to the segment of population who keep their mobiles only for incoming calls, the precentage is far and few inbetween. We have no break up of the demographic profile and if the trends are to be seen, much of the money and the effort is being poured in the metros where there is more of a spending power as compared to other cities.

I have three telephone connections; one for regular use, the other a landline for broadband access and the thrid for calling up other Reliance numbers. Overall, I fail to understand as to how they would account for the “churn” or the “fastest growing segment” because I have never been enamoured of using the VAS. The operators know that there bread and butter segment is the voice calls and I am sure that they would implement the VoIP solutions to cut down on their costs. Everything else is flotsam and media generated hype.

In the same vein, most of the other handset manufacturers are clearly not making any efforts to address the cost of the handsets. Barring the advertising costs, if they implement open source solutions for the newer PDA’s, it can reduce the cost of the handsets to a large extent. Google’s Android would effect this to a large extent; though, I would reserve my comments on it till the time I actually get to use it. It’s still in the nascent stage; I am sure it would mature with the next release as they learn from their mistakes.

Vodafone has not addressed the GPRS connection charges; I still have to come across a reliable operator who can ensure a seamless connectivity across the major highways. I would want to access the Internet on a long boring journey; it remains a pathetic experience to even open up the mailbox. I don’t favor the mobile net on the move partly because of my bais for broadband and partly because it’s assinine to peer in the small screen. Unless of course, one has an iPhone and Safari which makes it a pleasure to surf on the small screen. Brilliant conceptual implementation.

The elections are nearing and I am keeping my fingers crossed for some semblance of the maturity on the following government to provide a clear direction to the broadband access and policy. We can do a lot more once we have a reliable connectivity. We dont need fancy laptops for kids in rural India to demonstrate the “modern with rural” mating. Its assinine to pour in money for something which just remains a showcase and earns you f***ing brownie points for “corporate social responsibility”.

This is just a loose string of thoughts as I was travelling back down. Although, it is a fascinating experience to see the rural landscape change. We realise that there is a lot of untapped potential and there is a chance to “change”.

Tags: Advertising, android, Appeal, Broadband, Broadband access, Google, GPRS, handsets, India, Internet, iPhone, Landline, laptop, Media, Mobile, Mobiles, Open Source, Opera, Reliance, Telecommunications India, Vodafone, Vodafone sucks