There are excellent guides available to enable your wireless networking on your Debian and then choosing Tata’s apn to access the Internet. I would not go in those details. I had used a 3G stick and after ensuring the proper network coverage, on a Windows machine, added it to my Debian based laptop. Although recognized, it failed to connect on to network and neither there was any way to install the company issued dialer.

However, it worked fine in Windows world; it was auto-recognized and I could work on that. What I noticed was the horrible lag and the ping times, clearly making it useless for any one for online gaming. It’s next to impossible. At the same time, the video buffering was relatively smooth although nothing to write home about.

With pathetic “download limits” and huge costs, I had to nix the plan of going in for Tata Docomo; although I must confess that they have a reasonably good customer care. My point of contact has been their on line chat and their email’s work, albeit very late. This, in my opinion, is better than the other companies who don’t give a shit about after sales.

Would you go in for an expensive hardware and huge recurring monthly expenses? 3G is NOT for the data but for more efficient spectrum utilization. The voice market dominates because these operators have no intention of improving on the value added services.

Thats where their bread and butter lies. If 3G data services were really to become “cheap”, to so called “market forces” would determine the outcome. I find it amusing when people crow about prices coming down eventually. There would never be an “unlimited plan” because shoring up the capacity on wireless networks is a huge sunk in investment which is not easy to recover.

For the time being, this is a worst case alternative to a proper wireline/wifi model. If you don’t have any other frigging option in this heartless world, go for it.

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Opera Mini

http://imgur.com/PZwCF

If you look carefully, bulk of the developing and the underdeveloped countries utilize the mobile web to access social networking sites. US (and some other developed economies) are lower down the scale.

Interestingly, the data transferred per user is a pathetic 7 MB (averaged over the month perhaps?) which means that operators are still being generous with their limits. However,  this is a crude approximation. For once, we have a clear proof that mobile internet is definitely a part of their value added services kitty but is NOT the revenue driver for them. They are offering it because there is no alternative.

This also explains their aggressive stance to get the 3G spectrum; primarily to add more voice customers than to offer data services.

If you look at the snapshot of the popular phones, Nokia is still leading the pack but majority of them are NOT smartphones. These java based handsets are pathetic in terms of functionality and at best useful for “checking the status updates” on Facebook.

A surprise entry is that of “Micromax” handset; they have capitalized on aggressive marketing and low price entry point.

Unfortunately, this does not portend good for the broadband initiatives. A cursory glance at the top sites (Google leads the pack) is only indicative. Google has benefited from being the default search engine on the browser and hence the port of call for any search. I barely use my handset for GPRS (or EDGE) for web surfing because smartphones (and their form factor) is basically useless to transact anything useful. For me, the only reason to invest is for email.

Nevertheless, this report can again be questioned in terms of “growth of users”. It is not clear about how the methodology has been arrived at and what has constituted the “growth in real terms”. However, one thing is clear. Most of the web sites focused on Indian content don’t have mobile strategies to counter the growth in the user base. Pathetic.

Indeed, with majority of the young adults unable to read/write or even engage in meaningful conversations on Indian polity, this “dumbification” was expected.

Facebook, although shows some presence (in terms of mobile access), mobile broadband is still “not hot” in US of A. There could be myriad factors but then Opera’s state of web access is best a “snapshot” of the handsets and it’s deal with the OEM‘s to bundle the product.

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how would it be disruptive for the traditional cellular carriers.

A lot has been written skype’s acquistion (please see the related links below). Some people feel that it’s going to be good for the enterprise market, some feel that it is a useless deal with Microsoft bleeding millions of dollars everyday and a questionable “internet policy”. Perhaps all these rationales look at the whole question piecemeal. But no one has the complete answer.

I have been interested in the VoIP market for long. I have written about it earlier extensively (here, here, here) in the past. Yet, Skype’s acquisition takes the cake.

Image via Wikipedia

In an earlier post, I mentioned:

Image via CrunchBase

TRAI called for implementation of Internet Telephony and Carrier Access Codes.

This was mandated much earlier way back in 2001; however, this was opposed by Bharti. Reliance had entered with the premise of “death of distance” and had made STD calls ridiculously cheap….. If Internet telephony is implemented in it’s present shape, it would

see present rates crashing down to a large extent.

Image via Wikipedia

It would give a new lease of life to ISP’s like Sify and other fringe lunatics to scale up investments. I can foresee the entry of players like Skype as well as other SIP players which rely on open standards. It’s hard not to imagine the real gains to economy as a whole and it would benefit the adoption of setting up of WiFi hotspots on a larger scale.

In another blog post, I had written:

Govind says that Wifi can be used to carry calls which works out to be cheaper. Of course, I have explored these options way back earlier on; the current “competitive” scenario has resulted only in oligopolies and each new talk plan is basically a rehash of the others. Without disclosing upfront about the estimated monthly outgo, TRAI okays each plan without taking the consumer’s advantage in question. As a result we are fleeced to no extent. I really doubt whether WiFi can be used to carry out the calls-the investments are way too huge to justify parallel (and cheaper ) networks. Where would Bharti get it’s crores from?

Assuming that wifi becomes available all around, what is the guarantee that telcos won’t use all means to block the calls via Skype or any other internet phone? High usage charges would spike any consumer interest because in all probability it would be a “value added service” which by it’s own argument, can be priced higher. Unless of course, people set up their own small WiFi networks. A long shot indeed.

And in the winning entry for “Big Ideas Contest”, Skype (or Internet Telephony) was mentioned in passing; actually leveraging the low cost of routing international calls and passing on the advantage to the customers.

Teleconferencing would make it easier for people to people contacts; Gujarat has shown the way! Why can’t India have something similar to Skype? (There is a move to have something similar in the GNU world where encryption would be based on open standards).

I don’t have any love lost for Microsoft; but as any corporation, it does what it has to do to survive. It’s a jungle out there and only the best survive by breaking through the clutter. There can be no easy answers to certain “defining moments”; we must wait for the answers to reveal themselves. The point here is that I have remained consistent in my assertions over the years and have called for opening up the standards instead.

Let’s look at what New York Times article has to say.

Image via Wikipedia

The telecommunications industry is already in a state of flux as more people disconnect their home telephone lines in favor of cellphones. Now the wireless carriers are looking for new ways to make money based on mobile broadband and applications, rather than voice minutes. “Eventually, everything migrates to a data channel,” said Brian Higgins, an executive at Verizon Wireless who is developing products and services for the company’s high-speed 4G network. “We’re moving away from silos of communication to one where everything is combined together.”

This assertion is not valid but rather a corporate spin and gibberish. The reason is that landlines offer higher rate of data transfer and wireless networks can easily get choked. Similarly for 3G networks being pandered about in India; main reason is to offer better voice minutes than spur on the data usage. Had there been any commitment for the same, the market would have reacted in a “bloodbath” to drop the rates and make it better to access the services.

Howsoever clueless these people are, data is definitely not on their minds. Hence, the question of “communication silos” does not arise at all.

But the Skype deal also signifies a larger interest in next-generation communications services. It is not just Skype that the wireless companies need to worry about. A bevy of mobile messaging applications, including WhatsApp, Kik, GroupMe and textPlus, allow people to send messages over data networks, sidestepping the cost of sending and receiving standard text messages.

Carriers already must deal with many new competitors in the communications game. Name companies like Apple, Facebook and Google are making services available that traditionally only carriers could offer. Google, like Skype, offers ways to make free phone and video calls over the Internet. Apple lets iPhone owners make video calls.

The ultimate risk for the carriers, analysts say, is becoming “dumb pipes,” providing only the data connection and not selling any more sophisticated communications services themselves.

Agreed on this count. The newer generation services mentioned here are really disruptive. However, they have not achieved a critical scale; not to the level that carriers start blocking them actively violating “net-neutrality”.

So how would the companies react to such developments? Possibly by lowering expectations of supra-massive profits at our expense and by “signing up deals”. Although Value Added Services (VAS) remains a viable channel, I still have to see any “developments” in that; it remains a subject of a future post.

Carriers have responded to the shift toward digital communication differently. Some seek to leverage the new wave of services to differentiate themselves and gain an edge over competitors. Sprint, for example, recently united with Google to let its customers link their Sprint phone numbers to Google Voice, a service that rings all of a person’s phones and even Gmail when someone calls that person’s number.

However, these efforts are half hearted approaches to the present dispensation. Skype is important, yes, in the VOIP Space. With the development of GNU Public Telephony project on fast track, I am sure something would definitely strike in for alternative access opportunities like SIP phones coming in the mainstream.

I remain positive for a Vonage like service over landlines and I strongly back that company (please, it’s not an endorsement). For a fixed amount, it’s possible to call in major countries and is totally “place agnostic”. I can make unlimited international calls all across for a fixed monthly fees. Thats the real power of broadband for communication. Wireless is not cool because of it’s inherent limitations and POTS (Plain Old Telephone System) is STILL the best bet.

Image via Wikipedia

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I have argued against excessive reliance on social media; it is a stupid decision to hail Facebook and Twitter as the “next destination”. This is the problem with the marketing executives either from the mobile companies or handset manufacturers. For example, it’s not difficult to miss the blurb that accessing Facebook is “easy” by a “single click button”.

The experience on ground is different. Let’s assume, for a moment that there are over 600 million users. How many of them are active? What is the “engagement matrix” on the web site? What is the actual cost retrieved by

Image via CrunchBase

Facebook from it’s advertisers; i.e. how effective is advertising on the platform? Is social engagement really effective? I mean, it’s stupidity to see links from Facebook friends streaming in Bing (which has implemented the feature and live on to crow that they are up in the pissing game with Google).

If you dissect the issue further, accumulating a number of “likes” on the platform does not mean that it likely to translate into action. I was moved by this interesting blog post and they

Image via CrunchBase

gave explicit reasons why they are moving away from facebook hype: (emphasis mine)

1. The Facebook API changes too often. The plug-ins are buggy, the API changes without notice rather often, and there are too many rules constraining how developers can use the API in building applications. As a platform, it is unstable, period. ……

2. Facebook is overhyped. Personally, even though Facebook actually has 600 million active users, developers still tend to overestimate how many people actually 1) have a Facebook account, 2) use it regularly, and 3) are comfortable using it as a third-party authentication method. Many consumers across different niche markets are simply not familiar with how Facebook works; developing Facebook-only applications marginalizes this segment of users, who may be substantial in number.

3. Facebook is still mainly social for most, and exclusively social for some. We are still not completely convinced that Facebook can be an effective platform for any commercial activity…….Of all the new variants of ecommerce, the one that might actually take off is, in our view, mobile commerce.

More interestingly, Facebook and other industry “leaders” are opposing the proposed bill to protect the user’s privacy. I am not sure how this is going to pan out but this is good enough indication that some sense has dawned to protect the users from advertising onslaught.

California could force Facebook and other social-networking sites to change their privacy protection policies under a first-of-its-kind proposal at the state Capitol that is opposed by much of the Internet industry……social-networking sites would have to allow users to establish their privacy settings…

….like who could view their profile and what information would be public to everyone on the Internet – when they register to join the site instead of after they join. Sites would also have to set defaults to private so that users would choose which information is public

These measures would not apply to India or it’s privacy laws though I heard they have been tightened in recent times; the impact on end users has not been discussed.

There’s one more compelling reason to avoid reliance on Facebook; falling traffic. Countries that were on the path to early adoption is seeing a fall in the traffic (perhaps an indication of slow and waning interest).

The average decline over months has yet to become negative, though. There are other possible factors at work, too, such as bugs in the Facebook ad tool that we get this data from…. in order to identif the long-term directions here is crucial for planning how to capitalize on Facebook’s success, or lack thereof.

It is most likely to be argued that India would perhaps be a “fantastic growth opportunity” but is corporate gibberish. Even if the “dark populations” are lighted up, in absence of aggressive promotion of localized content, it is unlikely to see a massive expansion. It seems that most of the companies keep their “outposts” in India to hire cheap labor for “translation” efforts. It’s not a generalized statement, but thats the reality. Again, there is NO reliable data to break up the traffic specific to the sites or universally agreed metrics to track traffic to popular sites (however, Opera Mobile‘s stats are likely to be more reliable).

Where do we go from here? It is important not to rely completely on the “social aspect” of the net. It is a matter of time before it fades away for perhaps a better “personalized approach” (more so as semantic web matures and we have better ontology) to deal with. That also comes as a rider but there is no “perfect ideal approach”. This is something that the next generation access devices and advertising agencies should keep in mind before they can actually deliver better “value added services”.

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I could give a rebuttal to each and every slide posted here.

And of course, it’s not hunky dory. So despite the huge potential (because of population), why are we not seeing the explosion of opportunity in this space?

Fact is that VAS (value added service) is an unproven concept. In the Indian market, no one wants to risk out a potential investment of crores before finding out that this is a dead dodo. I don’t have authentic figures for the existing services available and in any case, no one releases them publicly as a matter of fact. It is safe to presume that VAS is a market that never took off beyond the “ring tones” market. It is unlikely that we are going to see any action in this space in the near future. Indian mobile “revolution” is seriously voice based though.

The same analogy holds true for the data services (GPRS and 3G) as well.

I have written about it extensively earlier (Do have a look at the related entries).

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Image via Wikipedia

I have explored various other aspects of mobile internet in recent times. It would not be worthwhile to cry myself hoarse about the pathetic mobile access in India (which I have done repeatedly) but lets take a look at how the platforms are evolving based on the Mobile version of “broadband”.

Unfortunately, this write up draws inspiration from the western markets because the traditional mobile industry in India has not matured beyond the typical value added services of ring tones. I find it really hard to swallow if someone points me towards the mobile “games”. Yes, there are enough idiots to crow about the viability of mobile games as a money spinner but we could safely ignore them.Including the myriad “research firms” that pay money to get “quoted” in mainstream Indian press and financial dailies.However, it could be different if we have something like “Indian version” of Angry Birds. (Disclosure: I have that on my Android handset and ABSOLUTELY love it. With their shift towards in-game payment options), they would be justifying the huge surge of interest from venture capitalists.

This brings Indian media into picture. Over the past few weeks, I have been interacting with some people regarding “upgradation” of their web sites. They are badly coded examples of the worst case scenario of “Indian outsourcing”. I have tried, in recent times, to make a shift towards Drupal and understand that it is a sum of all aspects that needs to work in different browsers with cross platform compatibility. Unfortunately, they don’t realize the importance of having a proper mobile access stripped of advertisements.

Hence, a “mature” access device is unlikely to make a dent in India. The success of iPad hinges more from how Jobs has been able to “distort the reality” with his marketing gimmicks and how the whole ecosystem has been designed to keep the customers locked in. However, given the form factor, Jobs has been able to hit the sweet spot; a readable touch screen with mobile access.

There are people who swear by Flipboard but I haven’t really found a good RSS reader with capability of semantic linkages. Zeta has been launched recently with a lot of promise and cluster fuck advertising but since I don’t have an iPad, it is unlikely I would do any kind of a comparison between Zeta and Flipboard. I am stuck to Google Reader because thats unfortunately, the only in-browser app that works (others are plain useless with perhaps a bit of exception to RSS Owl or Blog Bridge).

Murdoch had launched “The Daily” with a lot of hype; but a few weeks later, there are people leaving him away in droves.There has been a lot of explaining behind this because arguably the fundamental reasoning behind iPad apps is flawed. For those who are watching the media space (and betting on Indian version of tablets) are going to be highly disappointed but well, they are unlikely to invest in resources which cannot be monetised (given the huge levels of piracy and nearly absent mechanisms of micropayments in this technology backwaters of the world).

So this effectively boils down to lack of developer interest in creating applications (hey what would you get with a huge army of morons and script kiddies who can’t even code a single line of software), lack of venture capital and inability to sustain a start up. (I strongly suggest that you read Shyam’s write up on the same issue). To quote selectively:

The main problem is that the Indian market for digital goods and services is tiny. In a non-existent market, neither product finesse nor pricing can make much of a difference. There is barely enough size in the digital domain to sustain large profitable companies.

Ironically, mobile companies are the only ones to push for content. However, therein comes the “platform interest”. Would you invest money in something that works across all handsets with rival operators? Or would you invest in something that would be locked up for your own network alone? Either way, the thorny issue does not yield any straight answers.

Hence, I find the obessession with pumping up digital content a tad boring. Not because I don’t want to consume but the options are sorely limited. Eve for 3G access, companies forbid “tethering” (not that no one cares a rats ass fuck about it) but they expect the 3g phones to have gigantic screens that would solve the issue. This would also explain that one reason why the prices are so high. Apart from the sunk costs, most of the operators are well aware that Internet access on mobiles would broadly mirror the broadband access on land lines i.e. a huge mass of zombified idiots would access only Yahoo or Facebook. It cannot be wished away because they would only cater to the mass of idiots without bothering about the “outliers” like us because there is no “real space” created.

No one wants to spend money to “change the habits” for content access. They would rather fill up the channels (and “news”) with “Bollywood flotsam” and fake celebrities prancing around either naked or raved out with hollow sockets floating around in public perception. (Okay well, I am biased since I find most of them really retarded).

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Docomo was supposed to launch it’s 3G services from today but it remains a classic example of how NOT to do things. First and foremost is that there ought to be a clear line of communication about the services, what it entails, the expected costs and charges and how the existing GPRS users are going to be migrated to 3G. Common sense dictates that customer care should be informed accordingly and be trained instead of a dumb shit moron trying to answer the queries from “educated and enlightened customers”. Instead, Docomo has failed to inform me in advance about the same. I registered for their “newsletter” but it seems that their backend has conked off. Who is their provider? IBM? Pooh pooh.

Spewing out the venom is not going to help here and neither going to make a difference to the dodos sitting at the top. But we have some expectation from a company that has made a big name for itself in Japan. Yet, at the same time, one should not forget that it is a the Tata’s pedigree which is at work and they are known to pick up the worst among the best for manning their services. This is reflected in their thought process, their work and general approach to telecom services.

Ideally, instead of ham handed approach, they ought to have been clear and transparent. They should have clearly mentioned the service areas, the expectations from their service, the expected speeds and network and the possible charges.

I have always opposed the 3G services and instead always argued for stepping up investments in wireline. The major reason is that 3G can support “fast speeds” but is limited to spectrum and when more customers join the party, it is going to be a major disaster for the company. This has been seen in mature markets where 3G is synonymous with pathetic services. Further, high costs for “unlimited access” is plain stealing. No one likes the crap of “fair usage policies”. For most, GPRS is decent approach because mobile broadband sucks.

Lets see what the company has to offer and how it plans to market it. It has set up a separate page for the same and I am wondering who okayed this kind of pure crap. (with loads of grammatical errors and mistyped words- emphasis mine).

Here’s from the horse’s mouth:

Now DO the new with 3G, at a refreshingly fast pace. Coming from the world leaders in 3G, Tata DOCOMO 3G is an all-new way to experience life on the go!
Life on 3G is definitely fastera, richer & exciting. With Tata DOCOMO 3G, your mobile phone is no more just a device that makes calls – it””s a TV, a theatre, a gaming console and a satellite camera all at once. Do much more with your smartphone than you ever imagined!

Now can anyone of these dumb fucks ever care to explain about “satellite camera”? PMSL

It also makes tall claims about playing “3D games”. And it speaks about “better network security”. WHOA!!

Here’s one for starters:

Selection_001 –

Here’s another monstrosity:

Selection_002 –

Instead of a cluster fcuk of news with overdrive of PR agencies to bombard the message, Docomo should be clear of what they want. Assholes.

I suspect that some research agency is behind their PR efforts. Here is what one dumb fcuk had to say about Tata Docomo 3G on DNA (Newspaper) and I quote:

Sujay Misra, managing director of AZ Research Partners, says one of the reasons for this is their subscriber-base is predominantly low-end. “You need to have the right instrument (high-end mobiles and smartphones) to get access to 3G services. Also, BSNL and MTNL have not bothered to educate their customers about the 3G services,” he said.

Really? Why would they even bother to put you on print? This is what you get from paying your way through, you moron?

Hence, Tata Docomo is a MONUMENTAL FAILURE even before it has seen it’s commercial activity. There are people crowing about this company getting it’s “first mover advantage” but other companies in the fray are investing in 3G for spectrum and more customers. Data services are not even on their minds. The reason? There is no dedicated system for “apps” and they are sold as “value added services” to shore up “extra revenue” but not at the expense of voice calls. They still make profits on voice calls. This is a heterogeneous market and no one size fits all. Despite the marketing chutzpah, voice still remains bread, butter (and jam) for these companies. Give or take SMS.

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A much more prudent option would be to analyze the situation and fix the guilty party. TRAI, to my understanding remains out of bounds for the general public. A public body ought to formulate the policies by LISTENING to them rather than stick around in isolation. Yet, it remains open to lobbyists of all hues and the post retirement bonanza is always an option for the retiring bureaucrats.

Remember Baijal? He had done nothing revolutionary while in TRAI but the worst part was that he went on to join some kind of a rag tag consortium of the private players as a “facilitator”. The exact details elude me since I had read this in one of the weekly magazines (for which I don’t have time now). Loosely translated, it is the big boys club where they are known for their wheeling dealings and lobbying since these guys are fully aware of the levers of power.

What this means for you and me? It means that SMS would be atrociously charged even though it is FREE for the telecom companies; customer care is a farce because these are fronts for these companies as the real buggers hide behind the smokescreen and your hard earned money is being palmed off easily.

My mail in response to Sunil Jain’s write up in Business Standard was published recently (in fact quite a lot of them though). I had clearly mentioned that BSNL does not lack the expertise to roll out the networks but rather it has been ham handed by TRAI and the network expansion plans locked up in court battles which stunts it’s growth. This means that a poor coverage of the private players in rural areas continues as it is because these bastards won’t let the others grow. This also means that behind the glitzy advertisements, your over dependence on these players is being taken for granted and for a ride.

TRAI needs to be dismantled or radically overhauled. It’s time that companies like BSNL speak out against them.

I am putting up the published email in it’s entirety.

The real reason for the loss of market share is the ham handed policies
and has nothing to do with lack of an opportunity. For over many years,
BSNL’s expansion for over 40 million lines for GSM has been held up in
court cases or stuck because of the objections of various ministries. This
speaks volumes about the operational efficiency of the PSU’s.

Mr Jain’s write up clearly points the anomaly. The entry of private
telecom players is welcome because they have worked hard to improve the
teledensity. However, this has definitely come at a cost to Indian
industry. None of the telecom equipment is manufactured in India and we
are dependent on the big majors from the Western world. Broadband as a
metric for the GDP languishes. Mobile connectivity based on voice alone
would not contribute to their kitty based on low ARPU’s; most of the
mobile operators have shied away from creating custom applications for
shoring up the value added services. Finally, having a private operator
does not mean that services are automatically ensured. There are a large
number of forums where people recount their horrible experiences with the
telecom operators; no one seems to be wiser than the other.

All of this to be kept in mind before they can get a clean chit. The real
public sector needs to be shored up, given operational freedom to choose
with the best practises and ideally no interference from any quarter. This
would be a fair enough ground to test for the acquisition of customers.
Further, the PSU needs to shed their complacency in case they need to
survive instead of relying alone on the taxpayers money.

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TRAI releases it’s numbers from the industry proclamations; it has not thought to independently audit the claims. Neither does the Department of Telecom (or may be that I am unaware of any such publication in the mainstream media). I have criticized 3G on many occasions and I see no merit in sinking in huge amount of funds on a technology which would get outdated in rapidly evolving 4G standards. All the more, India missed a golden opportunity to set up it’s own standards for mobile telephony thus forcing the mobile operators to set up an ecosystem of not only the entire gamut of the telecom equipment but handsets also. It would have spurred on demand for quality and generated much better employment prospects than importing the crap dip shit that we are forced to put up with now.

No handset comes closer in terms of oomph and style; something of the likes of an Apple iPhone with it’s iTunes store. While it is profitable, something similar is next to impossible to find here in India- the market of apps is right there but there is no serviceable product.

Nokia has failed terribly; I am definitely impressed by the new layout of it’s Ovi Store but trying to find an app that works across all platforms is like looking for a needle in a haystack. To worsen the matters, the price quoted is in Euros. If any asshole from Nokia India is reading this, please understand that its not possible to pay in Euros here because THAT is NOT the national currency. Besides that, none of the applications are a must have. No wonder, the Finns are getting clobbered left right and centre; the market share has definitely slid down to 60% as per the estimates.

This brings me to the final question. If we dont really have apps or the snazzy and the jazzy handsets, what are we really fighting for? Why should 3G should really be auctioned?

If Internet connectivity is the SOLE criterion, then public Wifi’s should be set up. The Wifis should be free for access upto a certain speed limit; beyond that a price mechanism be set up for higher access speeds. Or broadband initiative be accelerated with the huge amount of Universal Service Obligation Fund (last heard it had swelled up to 18,000 crores). But well, since the lobby market exists in a big way, we can only hope.

For a better round up of the telecom scenario, please read an insightful write up on Knowledge@Wharton write up.

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Dear Sir,

This refers to Shyam Ponnapa’s write up on BS dated 05/110/2009 (Managing Spectrum Efficiently).

The big question. Why do we need 3G? Why not focus on the land line business alone for broadband access? Or better still. Community Wifi?

The arguments for doing away with this are many. Community Wifi is deemed to be a security risk but then countries like Singapore have implemented this on a large scale nationwide. The mobile phones required to access 3G invariably have Wifi access too. Unless, the telecom companies are expecting surefire hits like Apple iPhones or flood of other smart phones to access the Internet, it is not happening.

We don’t have accurate numbers about the likes of Reliance and Tata who are offering their 3G access. If initial reports are to be believed, they are plagued by “line of sight” hassles, ‘network congestion’ and lackluster customer support. To top it all, it has the access limitations which means that broadband access, even on the 3G spectrum would be capped for very obvious reasons.

We have enough bandwidth in the country but as anyone would testify, we have problems in implementing the “last mile access”; having a contentious set of issues like 3G is not going to solve the persistent problem of “last mile access” because no one is interested in sinking money for a long term.

We can have a fair idea from the existing companies like Airtel or Vodafone who charge exorbitant rates under the present implementation of “mobile internet”. What is the guarantee that they would lower down the prices once they pay fancy sticker prices in 3G auction?

3G, would most likely be used for carrying more voice traffic because none of the players harbours any disillusionment about the “mobile broadband” across the length and breadth of the country.
The market for value added services is locked up within the “walled garden” of the existing players; it is unlikely that 3G access would “revolutionize” the content.

This pretty much sums up what I have always alluded here and my opposition to 3G remains.

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Rising competition (13 licences for each circle), falling tariffs (lowest in the world, falling further because of per-second billing), rapidly declining average revenue per user (ARPU) because the newer subscribers are the low spenders in semi-urban and rural areas, and high taxes (about 30 per cent in all) ……….have put paid to the aspirations of not only the new entrants but also incumbents……..deleted.

Forget about fancy valuations. I have always contested the claim about the “lowest tariff in the world” because it is not in consonance with the actual “gini coefficient”; which means that we pay more than we can actually spend. It is a bitter truth but then the newspapers need a lifeline of their advertising spends, so rest assured, this truth will NEVER be out.

……Nearly 15 million more users came on board in September….. It has also brought into focus the phenomenon of dual SIMs — existing subscribers are acquiring additional connections, resulting in a seeming increase in subscribers but in fact merely leading to a bill being split between two or more service providers….Deleted.

For the first time, to my knowledge, a newspaper daily has mentioned this in black and white. Let me also repeat. The operators keep the discarded number for a period of atleast 3 months before it is “terminated”. So even though, a customer has left in the middle of month, the disconnection would not be reported for another 3 months (which, I believe is an industry practise). The same customer may acquire multiple connections or dual SIMS; so it is the growth of the SIM cards and perhaps not the customers which is reported. In any case, the simple headcount may not be feasible.

Industry executives blamed much of the ills on the government and the regulator. With falling tariffs, they need to cut costs, but their hands are tied because 35-40 per cent of their costs are taxes and other regulatory expenses. They have to pay 5 per cent of their revenue even from rural areas towards the universal service obligation fund which is meant to promote rural telephony. They said there was no need for the regulator to push for pay-per-second billing by all…… Deleted.

Now this is something that industry officials would always bleat about. Let them come out openly against the said “policies”…shadow fighting the Government wouldn’t help. For one simple reason. If these morons had any iota of service towards customers, I would have sympathized with them. But, they treat their customers like dirt; more so like crap cash cows who feeds in their kitties with little change so that likes of Mittal and his ilk can reap in obscene profits. In any case, let them prove their worth with their commitment to service, their willingness to be transparent, their approachability and customer care in the true sense of the term. People need their money’s worth but alas! My countrymen are basically lazy bastards who wish to have everything on platter without fighting for it.

…….the incumbents said they remain committed and focused on growth. “We will continue to enhance our market leadership and simultaneously open new revenue streams like m-commerce, m-entertainment, digital media and many other products……Deleted.

They have no real option but to focus on Value Added Services which is “babes, bikinis and bollywood”. Unless these people want to “focus” on phone sex services which would be a “high revenue earner” for them.

Rest of the write up seems to sum up the gloom and “brave words” just to reassure the shareholders that “we are up to it”. That we would weave our small little web of deceit, of lies and pull wool over the regulators and leave no stone unturned to defraud our customers because they are basically bunch of idiots and nincompoops. No one knows how much unaccounted for wealth flows in and out of system or whether this elaborate system allows them to launder their money in more effective way. There is no accountability to the customers because they are using a PUBLIC resource and merely by adding value to it doesn’t entitle them to the ownership of it.

Sadly, this isn’t mentioned anywhere. This of course, would be mentioned at all.

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Most of the telcos claim that they are running into losses since their account books are not open for public scrutiny. They resort to “shady deals and practises” to keep themselves afloat. No one knows their real valuations and the truth behind “window dressing”.

The strange thing, despite the “losses”, companies can afford to expand, go on an advertising spree and hire their “brand ambassadors”. No one knows for sure as to how much money exchanges hands.

Does that make a difference to you? Should you be concerned? The higher termination charges and the fact that companies have resisted all attempts to reduce the interconnect charges means that you continue to pay extremely high charges for all your calls. Clearly, value added services has added to their kitty but their practise of using differential tariffs for different markets has paid them rich dividends. They are slowly becoming monopolised and cartelised and even though you may think that you are the king, they suck you out of your money.

It’s high time these buggers need to be made accountable for the practises because the spectrum they use is clearly public property. They are just service providers and despite their claims of paying for the spectrun doesn’t give them the divine right to own it too. Plus, they owe thousands of crores to the Government (indirectly you and me) in terms of unpaid licencing money.

Scam. It’s a scam. It’s always been a scam.

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First, the contentious number portability system is going to be launched initially in the four metros. I can bet that this would come into play only after Reliance launches it’s GSM service. For very obvious reasons because it would be betting big on the churn specially from the lower end of the market. It has already placed orders for “millions of handsets” and is looking forward to flood Indian market with “choice”. Expect some rude shocks for the incumbents.

The exact mechanism isn’t clear but there is going to be a big mess initially. I am sure that the operators would want to put across punitive “termination charges”, get host of clearances etc etc before you can heave a sigh of relief from it’s evil clutches. Yet, there is no differentiator between the Shylocks and the Satans in the market because at end of the day, they are all part of the same shit hole. Expect some high voltage drama here.

Second, the 3G licenses would be issued. There is no final word as to how this is going to be achieved; we are waiting for the Minister to feed fat on more money. By the way, Pioneer has a damning expose on their wrong doings over the past one year. (Link Source) Unless,Mr Minister is fed fat in his Swiss Bank account (Indian banking system sucks) we are not going to see anything move in this direction.

Mobile value added services is not going to add anything extra unless operators offer free porn. Imagine, free streaming porn without any restriction and daily MMS scandals! Since, Indians are loath to accept anything that comes out in the open, they could start streaming this for select few, obviously for a higher remuneration. I wonder why no one has thought about it. Callback ringtones are a passe’. So, not much of an action there too.

Mobile Virtual Network Operators would perhaps be legalised under immense pressure from the business house of Tatas. They are very keen to expand their “brand”; I have not seen any major advertising campaign from Virgin Mobile in recent times. They are spiked and spooked and relegated to some corner uncared for. How would that really matter? Does having more operators actually make sense? I believe that one size fits all strategy is not feasible. There are scores of people who would be happy to make unlimited outgoing calls for a fixed sum. Some people like to call telemarketing companies for pranks. Some people like to call fixed “hotline numbers” which offer “anonymity” without realising that the calls are routed within India alone. Some people like SMS alone. I feel that there would be companies to cater to such sections of deviants alone unless someone wants to prove me wrong.

So basically, we are left with no real action. 3G and number portability would be launched when Reliance announces it’s intention to start it’s GSM services. 3G licenses would be auctioned when Mantri ji has a green signal from his swiss banker. MVNO is an old tune from equally old flute; after virgin’s debacle no one wants to burn their backsides.

Where does the landline fit it? What of the frigging e governance issues? What of the “e learning”? Sheesh. Such lofty ideals would be done to waste? Who has the time to bother about such issues?

Although, I do see some reduction in the price when the price of international bandwidth crashes; the demand from the cyber coolies reduces as a result of economic downturn and telecom operators would be forced to deploy their “excessive bandwidth” for residential purposes. We might see the death of dial up; unless BSNL wants to keep it on a life support system. Since, they are only ones on the national scene offering it for free! Morons.

Happy 2009!

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The “pundits” claim that this would give MTNL a first mover advantage over the existing players. 3G auctions have been in a mess; with regulations changed over at whims and fancies of the chosen few. TRAI doesnt have any locus standi over the existing state of affairs which makes for a very disappointing scenario. Nevertheless, the age of the “fast mobile speeds” are in the offing and full fledged services would roll out from next year onwards.

If the MTNL would have applied their minds to this golden goose, they could have easily sold branded 3G handsets. They are expecting a certain percentage of people to upgrade their existing connections or use their handsets as modems to connect to the laptops. A USB dongle is expected to cost around 3.5K with no word yet on the quantum of the downloads allowed. If the boffins are going to restrict the limits to say 500 MB or 1 GB or something like that, it makes no sense and it is a self defeatist service.

I do expect a significant percentage of people to shift to the mobile Internet; partly because of the high cost of access on landline and partly because most of them do not like to stay stuck on one place for net access. The cost of the handsets is falling over; Nokia and their ilk are falling all over the place to bring better technology in your hands. This would be a big differentiator for MTNL to shore up their revenues via value added services since ring tones and call back services have been done to death. The mobile operators have to think beyond their standard fare to increase their share; improve billing and introduce mechanisms for quicker complaint resolution.

Rajesh Jain has interesting take on the “red and blue” mobile market in context to 3G services and the VAS.

I am watching MTNL’s roll out with interest. For all practical purposes, 3G remains the ONLY high point in 2008 in which otherwise has been a flat and dull year for broadband penetration.

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The size of the deal is pegged at $1.5 billion (about Rs 6,700 crore), translating into a $6-billion (Rs 26,000 crore) valuation for the company that runs networks across the country and is planning to expand into GSM mobile services in the near future. Tata Teleservices is a loss-making company. Between 2005 and 2007, its cumulative losses stood at Rs 5,604 crore

This India story has been done to death many a times. There is no real addition of the 8-9 million customers per month. It is simply not possible. Most of the metros have choked and jammed. It is saturated. In order to expand into tier B and tier C cities, telcos need funds and assured returns. For all practical purposes, I dont forsee the market “hot and happening”; although the 3G services would assure monetised returns and would ride on the value added services.

It is no secret that Tatas claim their superiority of services based on some abstract benchmarks. There are people who would swear to God not to ever think of Tatas as their service provider. Frankly, TRAI has been unable to implement its own customer friendly norms; trying to get anything out of the useless idiots manning the customer service is a herculean task in itself.

Tata is a weathered story. They have lost it and the writing on the wall is as clear as the sunlight illuminating the dark dungeons of their minds. Telecom is a failed venture and they ought to accept defeat and ship out of business.

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Here in the grand strategy of Anil Ambani unfolds. He got the ad labs, poured in money in content creation and would make a huge moolah out of “exclusive” deals with media players. The value added services is a growing market and there is a HUGE space for exclusive content; I was surprised to know that there is a seperate channel for gardening; Tata has one for home tuitions. Although, it cannot replace the classrooms but then parents are keen for any degree of experimentation.

Coming back to IPTV. Does anyone of you readers think that this could make any degree of impact on the viewership? I feel that most of the people mistrust the landline outages (which are so frequent) unless there is a fibre to home coming to their homes with simple instructions to operate the set top box. The present hardware is designed to confuse the first time users; somewhere it ought to ring the bell to make it as simple as possible.

I would reserve my comments on the two competing platforms till the market matures up. Reliance is lying down low with it’s broadband offering. I am still wondering as to what has been the issue at their end. Why are they delaying the commercial launch? There are any number of ideas floating around and if they claim to be India’s number one network as far as the coverage is concerned, they ought to focus on their cherries. Or else, it would die a virgin.

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He does some numbers on the mumbo jumbo that is Value added services and I am more inclined to believe these stats as compared to the crap that gets dished out in the media. All in all, it is not the billion dollar industry but a more sedate estimated $200 million dollars. The number of subscribers may be “booming” but the real revenues are not. The mobile industry is playing a volume game and the new entrants realise it.

I feel that as the market matures and regulation becomes more pro active (i.e. there are no two centres of power- TRAI and DoT), it would be more fruitful for the customers. For starters, we would have more representation in the regulation from the customers; a real watchdog on lines of Ofcom who would penalise the lousy shit heads called as honchos and fair play instead of favouritism to likes of Reliance.

VAS (value added services) would help to extend the utility of the handset. Instead of downloading ringtones (which is an absolute no brainer), the likes of m Commerce might take roots. I had written an article on the same ages ago; Tata had plans to launch it in India. Somewhere along the line, the lost that game and became just another company with a fancy mobile telephone infrastructure.

If the market has to grow, there has to be a shift towards the basics. m Commerce can happen via secure sms based transactions. If the acceptance grows, I am sure there would be a good amount of money to be made in this.

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After Bharti, MTN chose to court Reliance. It sounds like a whorehouse. MTN is playing the perfect mistress to the hilt and has no compunctions to court customers; all in order to increase it’s share valuation. Reliance is eager to get a hold of their booty because it realises what Airtel doesn’t. It can easily scale up it’s investments in other parts of the world, negotiate for better prices of it’s equipment and telecom gear and leverage it’s investments in entertainment by offering value added services.

Anil Ambani’s fascination seems to have stemmed in from watching too many movies (1,2) and his scaling up his investments in Hollywood as well as his maiden venture Big Flix Spearheading these investments is Amit Khanna who is a failed producer of Hindi movies.

Entertainment in Indian terms is very coarse to define. Indian laws are “strict” as far as the western counterparts are concerned and what passes through the censor’s scissors is defended in terms of artistic freedom. It’s futile to comment on the various crop of heriones who serve as a fodder for casting couches but this association of money and glamour has been significant. Anil Ambani is trying to marry the two different worlds of films and telecom; hoping that it would click. He bought a chain of theatres to justify his expansion in US and hoping to fructify his couple of millions in Hollywood.

All in all his efforts to bring forth the broadband revolution have come to a naught. Long time back, I could starry eyed kids jamming on the country wide LAN and getting to play the first person shooter games. It was an idea that was well ahead of it’s time and it’s been ages literally that I have visited a Reliance Web World myself. Have they been given a decent burial? I have no clue. But Anil Ambani is very keen to scale up his investments in portals like Zapak. Not only it has a weird sounding name, it has full scale coding errors. Big Flix suffers from patchy server connectivity and it’s easier to log on to You Tube and watch a movie than suffer endlessly on Big Flix and expecting it to load up.

Movie rentals are yet untested success formula and I’d be happy to visit the neighbourhood shop owner who gives me a better service than a nameless dude giving me a DVD. If Anil Ambani really wants to make it big, he should explore the Broadband route and serve the movies from a decentralised server; single server costs would skyrocket once the service catches on. He should ensure minimum downtime and always on connectivity in excess of 5 Mbps. This is a tall order indeed and needs huge investments. Although, the returns would be manifold.

He is on the cusp of launching his DTH platform (one of his significant investments) called as BIG TV and hopes to catch up with the existing players. I don’t endorse his investments as yet; atleast not in the TV and Media (BIG FM for radio).

Can you see a pattern? He’s aiming for a cyber presence and across the cross spectrum of media. As and when private FM channels are allowed to transmit news (which would be a sad day indeed), BIG FM, BIG TV, BIG Flix et al would be at the forefront with perhaps “BIG Paper”‘ too.

If you click on the links to You Tube, you’d find his reason to marry the actress too. Sadly, she doesnt inspire him much for broadband though.

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I fired an email to their PR division. Their comments came in an attachment; not a good PR strategy in my opinion. They should have sent a seperate email or should have had a logo prominently displayed.

Here is the exact copy. My comments appear in italics in paranthesis.

1) Is Virgin a Mobile Virtual Network Operator independently acting in India?
Virgin Mobile services are being offered to consumers by Tata Teleservices through a brand franchise with the Virgin Group. This means that Virgin Mobile is a brand of Tata Teleservices. This brand franchise is within the permitted norms of license agreement of Tata Teleservices (Confused statements. Nevertheless, the supposed licence agreements have been invalidated by Department of Telecom in their wisdom. The email from the PR division came in before this happened).

2) Do you have a tie up with Tata Teleservices?

Virgin Mobile India is an equitable partnership (then what is the brand frachise?)between Virgin Group and Tata Teleservices. Virgin Mobile India will provide Tata Teleservices with experience and expertise in designing, marketing, and servicing Virgin Mobile branded products for the youth segment.

3) Who has designed your website?
Need inputs (Ha! They don’t know the name of their web designer!!! This has been prominently displayed on their home page. At first, I realised the futility of the question AFTER I had sent the email. However, even I was not prepared for their answer. Anyone with the right brains could have easily figured that out. Despite all the flash, it is choked of coding errors- a common refrain of most of the websites not designed to comply with web standards).

4) Why do you make service guarantees for network availability? Are you 100% sure that your network would not fail as compared to other service providers?
Virgin Mobile places huge importance on ensuring that we deliver a high quality service to customers. This philosophy pervades in everything that we do- quality of network, range of handsets, value added services on offer, customer care etc. We chose Tata Teleservices because we believe it has the best quality network in India (Who decides that?). According to published reports (where?), Tata Teleservices has the lowest dropped call rates and one of the lowest blocking rates in the industry(how?). This means that ‘Virgin Mobile’ branded customers will reliably be able to enjoy clear calls, a fast connection and low dropped-call rates(Low dropped call rates? Despite the network, customers would still experience call drops! Even though, they may be low by industry standards!!!).

5) Why did you choose to go ahead with Virgin?
Virgin brings extensive experience and expertise in targeting the youth market across 7 countries over the last 8 years. It is this experience, service innovation and ability to catch the pulse on the youth market that makes Virgin a perfect partner for our ‘youth’ brand.

All in all, it remains a perfect example of PR crap. Tata seriously needs a reality check. They have honest intentions; they need to tap the youth market. Their perception in the market is jaded and also ran; which is different from say Hutch. Most of the companies are aspiring for “youth tag” and hope that it would add “zing” to the company.

Why youth? They aspire for a better lifestyle and if a brand fits in their perceptions of being the “right one”, they would splurge on it. It remains true for the metros as well as the smaller towns and cities. However, Virgin Mobile would need massive advertising money to cause a “brand recall”, just like they have associated a dog with Hutch. For the same reason, having Shah Rukh Khan for Airtel has not worked well because he endorses many other brands. Further, Airtel’s marketing division is pits.

I feel that the PR divisions needs a better infusion of brains than the current crop of retards that presently infest them. They need to tone up their language primarily because flowery English doesnt work. Unless someone is looking at impressing some starry eyed nut.

By the way, their website designer is bcwebwise. It speaks very highly of it’s boss who is an ex journo and has ventured in web designing. It has jarring colours and as usual coding errors Not a very comforting thought to pay dollops of money to those who cant even ensure compliance to web standards.

Update: I got an email from their PR agency saying that the attachment was sent by mistake. They wanted to send a further email from their PR agency regarding the new development of licence norms. They wanted my telephone number in order to speak to me and clarify issues.

Incidentally, Virgin India came with front page advertisement on 10/03/2008 in Delhi edition of Times of India. They are paying the customers to recieve incoming calls. In my opinion, this is basically a gimmick to lure in customers initally; their call rates are almost similar as that of other operators.

I shall keep this post updated as and when newer developments happen.

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Reliance had offered “death for distance” but somewhere along the line it has lost it’s pizazz. It ended up in cartelisation of the big telecom companies (with tacit media approval not to expose their claims) because shedding prices hurt everyone in the process. You could drop the prices to zero but then how would you monetise your investments? It flies against the grain of logic (everything did).

I believe, that locked in handsets with compelling price points could be the key to the further growth. There is indeed a huge mass of the population that has not yet been brought in the ambit and it is here that the marketing muscle has failed. There is a crying need to address such price points because thats where the next set of revenues is going to come. Slowly, but surely.

For the same reason, the Broadband initiatives need to focus on the value added services like gaming. Even though, it is fledgling industry as compared to say a market for condoms, still it offers a juicy alternative to plain vanilla voice calls. Broadband opens up a lot of oppurtunities; just that one has to apply himself to this.

Going back to the original argument, unlimted plan pricing would ensure that the networks remain primed to the mass of people talking to each other. However, it would lead to sore congestion across the metros where the networks are already under strain. Telcos can milk a certain subsection of the high paying population to introduce something similar to this. It need not create any hoopla but set up dedicated customer points for high net worth players and offer them incentives of various plans. A guirella tactic would help them play along by word of mouth which is much more effective means of advertising than having a prick like SRK trying to do the job for you as a mascot.

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